Paris

[Muirium]

That's where I disagree with UKIP. I agree with their desire to leave the EU and change our immigration policy, but I don't agree with their hatred towards Eastern Europe. Ireland though? I hadn't heard aobut that.

All right, I can't prove that. But I'd love to see what happens if an Irishman stood up in their party conference and started lecturing on the preciousness of British freedom from European tyranny… cheers or boos? Place your bets!



The thing you'll see over the years ahead is how left wing and right wing are both full packages. People are either into strong public services and gay rights or they want out of Europe and can't bear the thought of a mosque in their neighbourhood. Beliefs correlate strongly. Human nature.

[stratokaster]

How about we take a page out of Putin's book? He did a good job kickstarting the birth rate in Russia without mass immigration.

Actually, the total fertility rate in Russia at its highest was still significantly lower than in the UK, and the trend already has reversed (the birth rate has started to fall again thanks to Russian reckless economic and foreign policies). Also while demographic situation in Russia has improved in recent years, the country attracted about 4 million immigrants over last 18 years, mainly from the Central Asian countries. Those communities are very visible in large Russian cities and often provoke displeasure of the locals (who are predominantly Slavic). Everyday xenophobia is very widespread in Russia even among the educated, with racial slurs widely used in everyday conversations. Violent attacks on non-Whites are also not rare, with many high-profile cases not properly investigated because Russian police is also predominantly xenophobic.

[Muirium]

I've always been a bit of a Russia fanboy — grew up in the 80s in the dying days of the Soviet Union, while Thatcher's Tories tore apart the country around me — and I still merrily type on Cyrillic keycaps on my throughly American Apple computers! But I've got to agree that Russia's been heading the wrong direction for years. Putin's brand of nationalism is more Marine Le Pen than Nicola Sturgeon, and the military action he's taking in Ukraine (for Christ's sake!) and Syria is deeply misguided. Didn't he live through Afghanistan? Russia has a long habit of picking the worst possible allies, and alienating the outside world as a direct result.

[stratokaster]

I'm a Russian citizen, lived in Russia for the best part of my life (hey, you're only young once) and I still visit my parents (who live in a city of about 1.5 million people not far from Moscow) regularly, but nowadays I prefer to live elsewhere. The climate in Russia is bad, and I'm not talking merely about weather. And because I'm a child of the 90s I positively identify with strong grassroot movements and murky waters of Ukraine's chaotic political situation, which is very reminiscent of Russia under Yeltsin (who, despite his numerous shortcomings, was still a far better president than Putin — at least he never tried to replace genuine politics with cardboard imitation).

[seebart]

I'm not so sure about Russia's demographic situation improving in recent years, possibly I cannot judge that well enough. I do know it's senseless to alienate Russia internationally. Russia is still an "oldish" superpower with a big military force and experience, better to have Russia as an ally IMO. Gerhard Schröder once said (his personal friend) Wladimir Putin is a "flawless democrat". I certainly do not share that opinion.

[Muirium]

As much of a leftie* as I am in general, let me just say that Schröder was a corrupt fool. Putin is many things, but a democrat in any remote sense of the word: nope.

Russia isn't going anywhere. Britain: sure, we're a has-been former power now of barely any material significance. But Russia is the largest nation on earth, and one of the best armed. I don't like much about Putin, but that's not because he's Russian. It's because of how he's holding Russia back. We need to get our shit together, Europe east and west.


*By international standards. In Scotland, I'm often called quite the opposite! We're a strange place…

[stratokaster]

The truth is that nobody is trying to willingly alienate Russia. Imagine that somebody steals a purse from you and when you and others try to act against the thief, he accuses you of oppressing and alienating him. That's exactly what Russia tries to pull off in international matters.

I wouldn't even call it a superpower. In terms of economy it's about the same size as Spain, and the influx of petrodollars during Putin's reign did little to strengthen its rotting infrastructure, mainly because Russia is incredibly corrupt. It's 2015, for Christ's sake, but people 300 km from Moscow still wash their clothes in the local river because there is no running water in their towns. I'm not kidding.

And if you think that Russia is not going anywhere, the history teaches us other things: the most common historical trend is dissolution of empires, and Russia won't be an exception. Even today ties between its various parts are tenuous at best. How can they not be when you can fly from Moscow to Vienna for $200, but a ticket from Moscow to Vladivostok is $1000?

[fohat]

the military action he's taking in Ukraine (for Christ's sake!) and Syria is deeply misguided. Didn't he live through Afghanistan?

Russia has a long habit of picking the worst possible allies, and alienating the outside world as a direct result.

And Bush Jr just had to play copycat and prove that the US could succeed where the USSR failed .....

[seebart]

Yup, Schröder got that Gazprom deal while still in office and migrated faster than a speeding bullet. Many, even his own socialists were shocked. No one really takes him seriously anymore. And Putin, well he's an old KGB officer and I think he still works that way to a certain degree. There is a nice picture online of Putin at work in the DDR disguised as a tourist whist Regan visits in the 1980's. I'm sure you've all seen it.

c47341-10.jpg (73.41 KiB) Viewed 5003 times

[Muirium]

Nice! I haven't seen that one in the media here before. Perhaps because there's no Boris in it. And I don't mean Yeltsin…


@Stratokaster: I'm pretty sure Russia is here for the long haul. The Soviet experience — especially the Great Patriotic War, aka World War 2, a conflict Russians are sure they won single handed, and they're only half wrong — burned the concept of Russian unity into people all over Russia's current territory, and many beyond! Stalin moved around entire nations of people to suit his schemes. And I'd be surprised if people on Russia's Pacific coast aren't some of the most nationalistic Russians of all. It is the nature of artificial nation building! You send loyalists there, and you make sure they rely on you for their lives. Even Britain has plenty of that in Northern Ireland.

[stratokaster]

@Stratokaster: I'm pretty sure Russia is here for the long haul. The Soviet experience — especially the Great Patriotic War, aka World War 2, a conflict Russians are sure they won single handed, and they're only half wrong — burned the concept of Russian unity into people all over Russia's current territory, and many beyond! Stalin moved around entire nations of people to suit his schemes. And I'd be surprised if people on Russia's Pacific coast aren't some of the most nationalistic Russians of all. It is the nature of artificial nation building! You send loyalists there, and you make sure they rely on you for their lives. Even Britain has plenty of that in Northern Ireland.

In fact, some of the richest regions of Russia have long-standing separatist sentiments. I know that for sure because my paternal ancestors are from Tatarstan and some of my maternal ancestors are from Siberia

Also lands beyond the Urals are very scarcely populated. It's very difficult to hold your vast territories if the average population density is about 1 man per square km and in some areas significantly less.

Don't get me wrong, I don't want Russia to fail, I want it to be a strong nation with its rightful place within the broader family of prosperous nations. But I have adopted a very pessimistic outlook recently.

[seebart]

You mean this chump Mu? Seems like a total dufus.

3b3ac5edfbba7836c08b364f23d85397c48c4d6afa70d89a35f6cc97a17e3f0e.jpg (46.49 KiB) Viewed 4989 times

[Muirium]

Yes! That fellow is, absurd as it is to say, England's Donald Trump. And I mean that as a way to compare how different the nations are as well. Wildly popular amongst right wing nutjobs, but with a bizarre appeal that spreads to the common man, too. He's a pitch perfect buffoon. A laser sharp oddball. And in fact a lot more media savvy and image conscious than Trump. Apparently Boris — yes, everyone calls him by his first name and has done for years, thanks BBC — has always been that way. Always pleasantly zany, a playful clown, and yet one smart sonofabitch. He's a superb orator — bear in mind I disagree with him completely in politics but credit where it's due — and can think so fast on his feet that he adlibs better lines than his peers can rehearse for weeks. There's a touch of calculating genius about him, right down to all those photos of him looking a bloody idiot. There's method to his madness. A lovable Tory, and England's perfect Prime Minister in waiting.

Cameron has a longterm ally all lined up to succeed him in the next couple of years: the positively evil looking and just as evil hearted George Osborne, currently finance minister. Boris has other plans. Neither man will be the least bit good to my country, or for much of England. Their party lost in 58 of 59 seats up here. But that's what goes for democracy in Britain. You'll be hearing more of them when one is the clown beside the next President, when they march us and the whole blind damn world into the Caliphate…

[seebart]

Well if he's that calculated and media smart then it should be interesting campaigning going for the PM. He must be more intelligent than Dumbell Trumpet then. I'd love to see those two together on stage, just for entertainment.

hair.jpg (90.26 KiB) Viewed 4950 times

[fohat]

We share a birthday! Although he is a few years older than me.

[seebart]

Very good fohat, alien mind controlling hair. I like that.

[Muirium]

Trump's more crass, obnoxious, in your face, and more of an asshole. Also a hell of a lot richer. Like I said, America's Boris!

Naturally, we the people have no say in the battle for who succeeds Cameron. It'll be a private affair among Tory MPs, who pick two candidates, who are then voted on by the "blue rinse brigade" (the Tory party membership), and then finally given the job by the Queen. (Not many Scots any step of the way! This is none of our business, he's just our bloody head of government…) Boris has a lot of enemies among his fellow MPs, and may have his work cut out for him just to make it onto the ballot. I'm sure Osborne intends to face Teresa "Nasty Party" May instead, by whatever means necessary. He'd have a better chance. Boris has strong mojo, and the media adores him. The stories write themselves.

[seebart]

Well on our side of the channel Merkel's popularity is dropping freefall due to her too late and little refugee crisis managment. Problem being she has little real opposition. The next election will tell the tale. This refugee crisis is not going away and voters will not forget she fucked up this time.

[fohat]

the crucial bit plucked from the very long magazine article:

"The fighters of the Islamic State are authentic throwbacks to early Islam and are faithfully reproducing its norms of war.

This behavior includes a number of practices that modern Muslims tend to prefer not to acknowledge as integral to their sacred texts.

“Slavery, crucifixion, and beheadings are not something that freakish [jihadists] are cherry-picking from the medieval tradition,” Haykel said.

Islamic State fighters “are smack in the middle of the medieval tradition and are bringing it wholesale into the present day.”

- Bernard Haykel 2015

[Muirium]

Some of the things explicitly banned in the Christian Bible:

60. Trimming your beard (19:27)

61. Cutting your hair at the sides (19:27)

62. Getting tattoos (19:28)

63. Making your daughter prostitute herself (19:29)

Quite a jump between 62 and 63! Yet they're right beside one another in the Book of Leviticus too. And the sin is of the same rank.

That's the problem with these scriptural religions: the word is sacred, so the rules can't be updated with modern content. As the article you mentioned says, the Sunni call Shia "innovators". And they mean that in the worst possible way! The Shia are considered to be heretics, adding their own lies to the perfect word of God. The word that says the battle at the end of the world will be against Rome, and that the forces against the Caliphate — presumably us infidels with our jets and nukes — will ride on horseback…

Yeah, the Book of Revelation is full of that stuff too. Islam and Christianity share an awful lot more than they differ.

[webwit]

Currently leading the Dutch polls, twice as big as the second biggest party. This was before the Paris attack. The current coalition has less votes combined.

[seebart]

Yeah I have been watching this guy, guess his jive is working somehow. In times like this it's easy to breed fear, guess he's pretty good at it.

[Muirium]

And then check the Bible. Especially the beginning and the end. Cringe! Whenever Jesus isn't on camera, it goes right off the rails.

What's his take on Hitler, by chance? Criminally misunderstood, amirite?

(Literally the last word we heard about Dutch politics over here was when Pim Fortyn was murdered in 2002. It doesn't exactly feature high on the agenda. No offence, but you guys are no Burma…)

[webwit]

He's a Fortuyn clone of sorts, and is smart enough to decry violence while pointing out he has been needing security 24x7 over a decade now, but not as sophisticated a populist as Fortuyn. Fortuyn's murder (and Van Gogh's) is part of the reason why there was a place for him to start with. Too right wing to be compared with that socialist Hitler! Ironically note that part of the funding comes from Israel/USA. Compare him to that direction.

[Muirium]

I know you guys have a large amount of immigration. And I assume that, like everywhere, it's unevenly distributed with migrants concentrating in the larger cities. There's a well known effect (whose name I've forgotten apparently) which correlates votes for xenophobic politicians with people living far away from immigrants. London is a good example of this: by far the focus for immigration in Britain, yet quite left wing. Ukip's strongest vote comes from the east coast sea towns of England, dilapidated and hopeless as they are; yet quite white by comparison. Being old and living amongst other old, white people, is the statistical sweet spot for Ukip supporters. Fear of the unknown. The bogeyman you know all about but never spoke to in your life.

I'm scratching my head, trying to think of a Scottish parallel to that guy, and drawing a blank. I'm quite certain we're not fundamentally more generous people than the Dutch or Poles or Hungarians, and so there really should be an opportunity for these right wing dingdongs over here too. But where the hell are they? The Scots Tories are as right wing as it gets up here, and they're led by a proud lesbian! Ukip has got zero MPs and zero MSPs. Why are we getting short changed of our rightful racist fuckers? Who's stealing our xenophobes? Such injustice!

[vivalarevolución]

Oh god. Did we have to bring Trump into this? The man is a poster child of a self-serving sociopath. Right now he is basically using the Paris massacre as opportunity to push gun ownership. But what's more depressing than Trump is how many people actually think the nonsense that comes out his mouth is sensible.

[Muirium]

He is my honest pick for next President, by the way. Not the guy I'd vote for, hell!, but the one I think most likely. He doesn't need to pull out when his poll numbers dip because of backers giving up on him, he just funds himself, there's no other conservative with any appeal up against him, and in a straight fight with Hillary Clinton: a great swathe of America simply will not vote for her.

Ross Perot was the last billionaire to waste a great chunk of change running for the Presidency. The money he sunk on NeXT was much smarter! Perot had some of Trump's strengths, but he was foolhardy enough to run as an independent. Even Jesus himself couldn't win an election if he wasn't on the Republican or Democrat ticket! The electoral college picks the winner, not the votes.

[webwit]

@Muirium
It's not like that. Wilder's PVV for instance became the biggest in Rotterdam last election, the second biggest city with many immigrants. Amsterdam isn't quite there yet, and I don't think it will, but for the first time since the end of world war two the labour party was voted out of running the city.

[Muirium]

Ouch. The extremists have caught the urban mainstream? Sounds like you guys are well and truly fucked! Guess we'll be seeing you with us outside the EU in the next year or two? It's cold, we should huddle!

[webwit]

In our diverse political landscape with no vote threshold they both lack majorities of votes and the willingness of other parties to form a coalition with them. We are stuck with our boring, normally corrupt politicians for the time being. Current coalition is Tories and Labour together ffs.