Brexit: The DT Poll

[adhoc]

Ah yes, seems like the cherry picked polls, "no more than 25% for leave" and such statements were utter bollocks.

I don’t think you understand how predictions work.

When someone says “75% chance of rain tomorrow” and it doesn’t rain, that doesn’t mean the prediction was “utter bollocks”.

The forecast doesn't say "75% chance of rain tomorrow and if you don't believe it, you're stupid".

[Stabilized]

Northern Ireland, Scotland and London voted to remain in EU... what happens now?

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Another Scottish referendum! London could also become part of Scotland, and become a island of the east coast.

[jacobolus]

The forecast doesn't say "75% chance of rain tomorrow and if you don't believe it, you're stupid".

Huh? Who said that?

25% chance of Brexit is implicitly saying: “There is a significant chance of Brexit. Flip 2 coins. Both come up heads? Brexit.”

Anyone who says both “X has a 25% chance” and “You’re stupid for predicting X” also doesn’t know how predictions work.. I didn’t see any of that here though.

What Murium said was “Cherry picking polls is for the hacks. Remain is the strong favourite. Here's the analyst I trust on the matter.” – Which (a) was a true statement, based on available evidence, and (b) didn’t say that leave couldn’t win and anyone who thinks so is stupid.

Personally I thought 25% seemed like a shockingly high chance, since Brexit seems like a self-evidently moronic policy choice. But hey, I don’t live in England, so my opinion doesn’t matter. Hooray for democracy.

[derzemel]

yeah, the Financial services industry was centered in London because UK was in the EU and the UK had the strong economy that offered security and stability. But now, when UKIP said that this was a vote against big corporations and banks, I think these big corporations and big banks could expect bigger taxes and not support for the EU (as it may have happened until now). I think they will slowly move their main operations on the continent (see Luxembourg)
I see the the GBP is in free fall:

[Wodan]

The UK has a very competitive service industry and the main reason why it has been thriving for the past years was the enormous market it had access to. As an freelancer Consultant, I keep getting calls from UK based agencies talking to me about projects in Germany or Switzerland. The only two other countries I get these kinds of calls from are ... Germany and Switzerland. That might be a little narrow view on the service industry as a whole but I believe the reduction of the local market for a service industry from 200mio+ people to 64mio will be a great challenge to overcome.

The enormous local market the EU has created supported many fundamental changes in national economies. Many of the participants of this large market started focussing more on their own strength and relied on other countries to fill up the gaps and also serve them as a market. Consequences for Germany are that we ended up making the expensive cars for everyone in the EU while most other country's economies gave up doing that.

The UK has become the dominant country for services and they are very active with their service industry in other EU countries - from UK locations. Compensating a hit in the service sector will be especially hard since "services" are very difficult to package and export elsewhere when a special market access is required for alot of them.

My main customer is in the payment business and their biggest struggle used to be companies from outside of the EU that got cheap licences for payment providing in the UK and start serving the whole EU from there. That's probably a thing of the past now

Well anyway ... don't listen to the immediate reaction of the stock and exchange markets. They are just very shaky when change happens. I will miss the UK position in the EU institutions, they were the good guys against the suicidal commies in the south. It just hurts that I made a 73GBP payment YESTERDAY!

Oh yeah, Brits! Sell me your stuff now!

[adhoc]

Yes, GBP fell and NOTHING has changed yet.

It's all speculation.

[Wodan]

You have to understand the excitement. I've become such a cynic, I just love to watch worlds collapse. And nothing is better than peoples getting what they cried for.

[derzemel]

Cameron is resigning

[photekq]

Goodbye Mr Slippery! This day just cannot get any better.

[scottc]

Northern Ireland, Scotland and London voted to remain in EU... what happens now?

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Another Scottish referendum! London could also become part of Scotland, and become a island of the east coast.

You're welcome to join Ireland. Looks like Northern Ireland might even be in it with you...

In other news, I'm planning alternatives to my plans for full-time relocation to London...

[Wodan]

That would basically mean surrendering Scapa Flow to the huns ... no bloody way!!!

[7bit]

...

In other news, I'm planning alternatives to my plans for full-time relocation to London...

I knew there will be refugees from the UK comming to us, if UK leaves the EU!

[derzemel]

...

In other news, I'm planning alternatives to my plans for full-time relocation to London...

I knew there will be refugees from the UK comming to us, if UK leaves the EU!

UK people are welcome to come to Romania too: great IT industry (growing constantly), cheap booze, nice and smart people, almost everyone speaks English, beautiful scenery, tropical heat (35 Celsius yesterday), mostly ok roads, small bribes, corruption not as obvious as 10 years ago, acceptable bureaucracy, fewer and fewer stray dogs, not many pocket thieves or gypsies (they all left to other countries)

[Wodan]

LOL you should work for the Romainian board of tourism.

"Romanian hookers now with 70% less itch"

[kbdfr]

[…] Romania […] [list of assets, concluding with:] not many […] gypsies […]

What about black people - or Jews?

[cookie]

Me right now:

Am I the only one who believe it was an utterly stupid idea to put such a complex thing up for a referendum?
I wouldn't dare to give a vote with my limited knowledge about the whole matter and I somehow have the feeling it's all about this:

Anyhow, I am actually very curios how all this will turn out for the UK...

[7bit]

[…] Romania […] [list of assets, concluding with:] not many […] gypsies […]

What about black people - or Jews?

Yea, that was the bad part of his post.


However, this is the future, if we can't stop them crossing the Channel:

[derzemel]

[…] Romania […] [list of assets, concluding with:] not many […] gypsies […]

What about black people - or Jews?

I do not have anything against gypsies (nor blacks, or jews).
I used the word "gypsies" because most of the people in Europe associate Romania with gypsies (maybe because they are also called the Roma people?).
Edit: I was called a gypsy in many places in Europe simply because I have a Romanian passport. I have never felt bad for it and each time I explained that the gypsy people are a minority.

"Romanian hookers now with 70% less itch"

I wanted to say that too, but I have no direct experience regarding their services

[adhoc]

Heh, I knew you're going to get attacked for using word gipsy. The word is used around these parts as well, but the west decided it's one of the many, many forbidden words and is trying hard to extend the decision to the rest of the world as well.

I was once on a seminar by a gipsy dude, who presented their culture and Roma people in general and said that he's proud to be a gipsy - gipsies are supposedly a "tribe" or an "ethnic group" of Roma people.

[Wodan]

Will there be a Gypxit?

[BimboBB]

Am I the only one who believe it was an utterly stupid idea to put such a complex thing up for a referendum?

I hope yes. Its practically written in every national constitution that the people have to be asked if they want to be rather their own nation or giving up their national constitution and becoming part of a (soviet)-union. Thats this was done only now for the first time is already a shame.

[webwit]

Wow what a surprise, I can't believe it.

Am I the only one who believe it was an utterly stupid idea to put such a complex thing up for a referendum? I wouldn't dare to give a vote with my limited knowledge about the whole matter and I somehow have the feeling it's all about this:

Bullshit. If you find yourself unfit to vote for a single issue, you're definitely unfit to vote for a much more complex political party which games you for your vote.

[andrewjoy]

Fuck it , i am moving to Scotland before its too late.

This is honestly why uneducated people should be able able to vote.

[Findecanor]

I'm going to London in three weeks, so a low GBP would suit me right now ... as long as it does not drag my domestic currency with it too much.

[Wodan]

I hope yes. Its practically written in every national constitution that the people have to be asked if they want to be rather their own nation or giving up their national constitution and becoming part of a (soviet)-union. Thats this was done only now for the first time is already a shame.

LOL source?
That's the kind of talk that poisons internet debates ... why bring in the soviet union here? That's just cheap, Godwins law light. Your statement is so full of ridiculous claims and misunderstanding of democratic procedures. We vote our representatives and equip them with the power to make decisions for us. That's called a representative democracy and I hope it's not the first time you've heard of this. Just because you don't like what's going on doesn't mean it's not democratic. Accepting the decision of the majority of part of a democracy and never in the late German history has there been anything close to a majority agains the EU membership so stop acting like the whole EU membership was undemocratic.

[derzemel]

Heh, I knew you're going to get attacked for using word gipsy. The word is used around these parts as well, but the west decided it's one of the many, many forbidden words and is trying hard to extend the decision to the rest of the world as well.

I was once on a seminar by a gipsy dude, who presented their culture and Roma people in general and said that he's proud to be a gipsy - gipsies are supposedly a "tribe" or an "ethnic group" of Roma people.

yeah, that's what I do not understand as well. Westerners put such a derogatory sense on the "gypsy" word. The only reason I have for this derogatory sense, is that allot of the beggar bands/mafia (I'm serious) that showed up in West and North Europe are made of Roma people, but it't not a very good reason.
Here the Gypsy word is used on the national TV, without anybody batting an eye. I have met plenty of gypsies that prefer to be called gypsy and dislike the word Roma/Romany

anyway, here is a beautiful art movie regarding the Romany / Gypsy people form Asia to Europe. The Romanian part is from min 37.15 to min 49.35. The singers are known as Taraf de Haïdouks

[cookie]

Well the vote is simple, leaving or not but I was talking about all the unpredictable stuff that will/can follow.
I'd love to fast forward 5 years from now to see how it turned out for the UK.

[adhoc]

Meh, I've stopped caring about these things. West thinks they know best for the entire world, but I really don't care for their thoughts on matters such as these. I only still find it funny how unaccepting they are of anybody not agreeing with them.

Gypsy translates to "tzigani" around these parts, an italian word for gypsies. That's what we use.

[kbdfr]

Heh, I knew you're going to get attacked for using word gipsy. The word is used around these parts as well, but the west decided it's one of the many, many forbidden words and is trying hard to extend the decision to the rest of the world as well. […]

Learn reading, or better: learn understanding.
I did not mind the [quoting you:] "word gipsy", but the statement in a list of assets that there are "not many […] gypsies".

I thought it would be quite clear even to poor brain performers, after all I took care to exactly define what I meant:

[…] Romania […] [list of assets, concluding with:] not many […] gypsies […]

What about black people - or Jews?

My comment made the rassist implication of the statement (not the word, the statement itself) clear.
But obviously not to everyone.

[7bit]

The depreciation of calling Roma Gypsys is more a central European thing. I've seen a movie from Portugal showing people smash frogs that are placed at the entrances of shops. They are placed there to scare Gypsys off. The film maker also called them Gypsys.