Brexit: The DT Poll

[webwit]

I counted zero counter-arguments. Wake me when you have any and can discuss politics like a grown-up.

I tried, scroll up. But the only response that got your attention was the zero-argument "personal attack" you got for mentioning "fucking Merkel"

And you want to be the grown-up here? Lol.

Another personal attack. Grow up.

I find it hilariously schizophrenic though that just on the previous page people agree that politicians lie and everyone knows that, but when I don't take what a power politician says at face value the next page and wonder what her true motivations and strategy are, you can say nothing more than "webwit is a paranoid cynical swastika loving asshole and should move to north-korea if he doesn't like it here", while providing no insights on Merkel's strategy or my views on that. Now what is it, do you think politicians lie or tell the truth. It can't be both.

Here's my Merkel statement:

I'm a bit more cynical and I think she's just smarter than those amateur 2nd rate politicians of only 6 countries (what a stupid message) who came together with Juncker and who felt the UK were touching their balls. They echoed the Schäuble strategy. My guess is Merkel supports this strategy, but speaks peace. If you want to make an example of the UK, any damage must be the fault of the UK, not of the evil EU. So you speak peace but do otherwise. But maybe she's just more moderate. There will be a growing pressure from businesses to make it a soft exit. For example, if you are a big import/export company in the Netherlands with lots of business with the UK, you want as much of the technical trade agreements to stay in place and take things easy, while Juncker and his pawns want to stop any country from getting the same idea. Those economic pressures will pressure the power politicians who are ultimately in their control. That lobby will pick up speed. Maybe Merkel's statement is the first echo of that.

Now, if you don't agree or have additional views, this is how it works: You reply and say, I don't agree and this and that is my view about Merkel and what she said, and you elaborate on that. That's a grown-up discussion.

You fail if you can only talk about me. So far you only talked about me. If fact, you already lost by Godwin's law. You introduced swastikas in the discussion. Pulled that right out of your ass.

[BimboBB]

I did recognized it just now, but also Swiss withdrawed just recently their EU application (one week before Brexit). So if Switzerland can do well without EU, why shouldnt UK manage it.

only “a few lunatics” may want to join the EU now

Now we only need referendums in the other EU countries and only than there will be a real European Union (containing most likely out of Germany and ähm...Germany).

[Wodan]

Another personal attack. Grow up.

No, just quoting you and following up on the grown-up insult you tried on me.

I find it hilariously schizophrenic though that just on the previous page people agree that politicians lie and everyone knows that, but when I don't take what a power politician says at face value the next page and wonder what her true motivations and strategy are, you can say nothing more than "webwit is a paranoid cynical swastika loving asshole and should move to north-korea if he doesn't like it here", while providing no insights on Merkel's strategy or my views on that. Now what is it, do you think politicians lie or tell the truth. It can't be both.

Here's my original statement:

Spoiler:

Those economic pressures will pressure the power politicians who are ultimately in their control. That lobby will pick up speed. Maybe Merkel's statement is the first echo of that.

The economic pressure inside the UK was always against the Brexit and no one cared. Think again ...

I have a different perspective of the political "gang" in Brussels. The EU administration is basically a state above other states, soem kind of meta state. All the political institutions and employees just exist because the EU exists and keeps on running. For the past decades, these EU institutions/politicians have done the best thing they can to have a career: grow the EU, create new institutions, find new candidates, please all the existing members and work on a constitution. This is why no one cared about the Greek situation before they stopped lying themselves. Blowing the whistle on them by EU officials would hurt the EU and thus hurt their job/the hand feeding them.

Situation has fundamentally changed. No one cares about a constitution any more and the last rounds of new members are controversial at best. For an EU official, growing the EU or it's influence inside the exiting members is no longer an option. Instead, they are now facing the risk of the EU falling apart. The best course to save their jobs, influence, career is to make sure that leaving the EU is as painful as possible for a former member to prevent other countries from following.

Look at the EU's top official's first reaction: "Okay please leave fast then"

Remember how during the first Scotland referendum the EU kept emphasising on how Scotland would need to apply for an EU membership on it's own after independence and this could take a while? Now the EU signals that should there be a second referendum, Scotland could quickly join the EU. They gave up on the UK, they've had it with the UK.

I am expecting the EU to play hard ball and make an example. If they let the UK come out of the EU in a stronger position, the EU is really dead. Now is the time to visualize the benefits of a EU membership. If the EU fails, everyone involved on the EU side of negotiations might soon find himself out of a job. It's that serious.

The industry will cry, especially in Germany, but the politicians, especially on the EU level, are fighting for their job.

Tl;dr (obviously ...):
Don't rely on the usual mechanics of politics here where economical pressure will push politicians into their direction. We've got a whole state of EU politicians who's career and existence depends on making an example of the UK now to prevent other countries from leaving.

You fail if you can only talk about me. So far you only talked about me. If fact, you already lost by Godwin's law. You introduced swastikas in the discussion. Pulled that right out of your ass.

Did you even read and understand what I wrote? My message was "Your Merkel rant is background noise compared to the Nazi insults we're seeing elsewhere" but you're so desperate for some kind of victory here you hold on to a single term and want to close the discussion. Again, very grown up.

[seebart]

You seem awfully protective of Angela Merkel Wodan? A personal affection? I'm pretty sure you don't want to read my personal opinion on her...and that's not the topic here as we can all see. She has her work "cut out" for her that's for sure. We have Bundestagswahl coming up next year, let's see how that unfolds.

[Wodan]

Actually not, you're not seeing me defend her in a single statement.

What grinds my gear is people running around blaming German politics for their own mysery or the mysery of the EU. That's good old scapegoat mechanics for you. If there's one thing the popular left- and right wing movements in many EU countries agree, it's that Germany is to blame. One exception though, we have to take the blame for the refugee situation created in the eastern countries of the EU. That was an isolated, national decision that resulted in an unseen storm on our eastern neighbors.

On top of that calling her "fucking Merkel" is just disrespecful and finally derailed my previous attempts at having a civilized discussion here.

[seebart]

There is some truth to what you are saying, also personal disrespect for Merkel is uncalled for although I personally enjoy that very much (and do not post like that here). I believe that many Europeans have a certain contempt for Germany as they feel they are and have been governed by Germany and France (mainly) without having any choice. I also believe that this was one of the factors in the Brexit vote, in fact I saw several videos in the weeks before the vote in which older Brits very clearly stated this on camera in a very outspoken manner: we British will NOT be governed by Germany !

[BimboBB]

One exception though, we have to take the blame for the refugee situation created in the eastern countries of the EU. That was an isolated, national decision that resulted in an unseen storm on our eastern neighbors.

I think that alone made the Brexit already possible. Because it was not only the eastern countries who were pissed off. It was whole Europe. But it was just one huge mistake in a long chain of mistakes and breaches of laws and national constitutions which meanwhile can be ironically called the fundament of the EU. No way you can sell that to the people as their future. All these big elitist EU-politicians should now really consider to go back to the drawing board or at least make a plan B. If they continue like before, I guess thats the end of the EU. In 2017 there is not only elections in Germany (which I doubt, will be a huge earthquake decision...as germans are way too brainwashed imho). But France is going to elect as well and their last regional elections last year could only prevent a win of Le Pen because of socialist begging their crowd for voting the conservatives, otherwise Le Pen had over 1/3 of the votes already. I doubt the mood changed much since than.

[jacobolus]

Webwit: I’m legitimately curious though. What is your preferred form of government? How do you think government institutions should work? How do you think they should be funded? Do you believe in trans-national institutions? Of which sort?

My impression of your recent comments is that you seem to have a profound hatred/disgust for US world economic/military/social domination of the past several decades, including the American economic aid to Europe after WWII and sponsorship of European institutions. What is your preferred alternative? How do you think Western Europe should interact with Russia, and how do you think it should have interacted with the USSR before that? What do you think the relationship should be between Europe and the Middle East, including immigration policy? Other former European colonies?

I can’t figure out where you’re coming from, because it seems to me that in every recent political discussion, pretty much irrespective of the topic, your interpretation of every actor is profoundly negative. (But maybe that’s a biased sample, and it’s only EU and US political leadership you are down on?)

[fohat]

I have a different perspective of the political "gang" in Brussels. The EU administration is basically a state above other states, soem kind of meta state.

All the political institutions and employees just exist because the EU exists and keeps on running. For the past decades, these EU institutions/politicians have done the best thing they can to have a career: grow the EU, create new institutions, find new candidates, please all the existing members and work on a constitution.

Situation has fundamentally changed. No one cares about a constitution any more and the last rounds of new members are controversial at best. For an EU official, growing the EU or it's influence inside the exiting members is no longer an option.

To me, the human race needs a mechanism to prevent its nation-states from running amok. The "World Wars" and "Cold War" of the 20th century proved that.

The League of Nations, UN/World Court, and EU were/are steps towards learning how we must structure such a mechanism and the EU has proven to be the most successful example so far. It must be an honest agreement, freely entered into, or it can never work. There will always be a substantial minority of malcontents in any group, but as long as they have some respect for the greater good that is a manageable problem. Human selfishness drives far too many people to put their own ambitions ahead of all else.

I desperately wish to see the EU survive as a (partially, at least) working proof of concept that nations can peacefully and profitably cooperate on a large scale.

As Wodan noted "institutions and employees just exist because the EU exists" and too many people resent the overwhelming focus on minutieae (the "low-hanging fruit") rather than the institution's "taking the bull by the horns" to address the important problems like social economics and war. Isn't it about time that the "civilized world" zeroed its attention on the Middle East and Africa and eliminated the need for escape rather than bemoaning the results after it is too late? Clearly, the roots of the problem are so repugnant and convoluted that nobody wants to go near it, but that will not be an option forever.

Perhaps if the planetary organization existed and kept its focus on the macro issues rather than the micro ones, people would be more inclined to accept it.
And the EU model is more viable and effective than the UN model.

I saw several videos in the weeks before the vote in which older Brits very clearly stated this on camera in a very outspoken manner: we British will NOT be governed by Germany !

I can understand the theoretical sentiment, but the British were hardly being "governed" by Germany just by virtue of their membership in the EU.

[vivalarevolución]

Webwit: I’m legitimately curious though. What is your preferred form of government? How do you think government institutions should work? How do you think they should be funded? Do you believe in trans-national institutions? Of which sort?

My impression of your recent comments is that you seem to have a profound hatred/disgust for US world economic/military/social domination of the past several decades, including the American economic aid to Europe after WWII and sponsorship of European institutions. What is your preferred alternative? How do you think Western Europe should interact with Russia, and how do you think it should have interacted with the USSR before that? What do you think the relationship should be between Europe and the Middle East, including immigration policy? Other former European colonies?

I can’t figure out where you’re coming from, because it seems to me that in every recent political discussion, pretty much irrespective of the topic, your interpretation of every actor is profoundly negative. (But maybe that’s a biased sample, and it’s only EU and US political leadership you are down on?)

I always thought webwit was for a mutual dislike and distrust of everyone. Not sure where that falls on the political spectrum. Maybe isolationist?

[webwit]

Ah, whether to start that discussion or not, with one guy who demonized me with swastikas and all after I criticized the proverbial fucking Merkel (hey, at least I didn't post an Erdogan cartoon), and another who demonizes me before I actually state my political preferences. That'll be fun.

I think I'll pass.

[jacobolus]

So why are you even here, webwit? Every time anyone asks you a question you throw up a smokescreen and dive the other way.

I mean, everyone already knows you hate the “proverbial fucking Merkel”. So your posts aren’t exactly adding new information.

[Halvar]

Call me a brainwashed German if you like, but Schäuble's concern that the EU and the Eurozone could fall apart, and his attempt to keep that from happening, are legitimate and viable at this point.

I think he knows very well that the EU member states will want to keep a good trade relationship with the UK in the end because it is such an important partner. So there is a certain danger that the UK will set a bad precendent by basically getting access to the EU market without the disadvantages of a EU membership. There's nothing revengeful in stating the fact that this can't be allowed to happen because it would put a considerable risk on the EU, namely of other states trying to get the same deal.

If things go bad, we could have a messy 2 year separation phase with each country that is trying to leave, during which the country can basically paralyze the EU institutions by sabotaging and vetoing all votes in order to get a better exit deal. With the importance of the EU for the economy of it members, this could be catastrophic.

I work fulltime for a UK based company, and I would love this separation to go smooth, but I see how the EU members that want to stay in the EU with a longer perspactive cannot be all soft and mellow about this, there's a balance to be found.

[7bit]

Wait? You still discussing this old topic?


The world moved on and everybody is talking about Bregret Regrexit and how to better forget the result of the referendum.

Call me a brainwashed German if you like, but Schäuble's concern that the EU and the Eurozone could fall apart, and his attempt to keep that from happening, are legitimate and viable at this point.

"Punish them!" is just the first reaction. In the end things will be less cruel. Just read webwit's post.

[seebart]

The world moved on and everybody is talking about Bregret and how to better forget the result of the referendum.

I believe it's called "Regrexit" but I'm not sure.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/reg ... b1bbbabc7a

[7bit]

The plan:
Step 1: shock, cruelty, horror scenarios!
Step 2: UK-government: do you really, really want that??
Step 3: UK-people: noooo!!!
Step 4: business as usual.

[webwit]

Call me a brainwashed German if you like, but Schäuble's concern that the EU and the Eurozone could fall apart, and his attempt to keep that from happening, are legitimate and viable at this point.

I think he knows very well that the EU member states will want to keep a good trade relationship with the UK in the end because it is such an important partner. So there is a certain danger that the UK will set a bad precendent by basically getting access to the EU market without the disadvantages of a EU membership. There's nothing revengeful in stating the fact that this can't be allowed to happen because it would put a considerable risk on the EU, namely of other states trying to get the same deal.

If things go bad, we could have a messy 2 year separation phase with each country that is trying to leave, during which the country can basically paralyze the EU institutions by sabotaging and vetoing all votes in order to get a better exit deal. With the importance of the EU for the economy of it members, this could be catastrophic.

I work fulltime for a UK based company, and I would love this separation to go smooth, but I see how the EU members that want to stay in the EU with a longer perspactive cannot be all soft and mellow about this, there's a balance to be found.

I don't think that's brainwashed but finally an intelligent continuation of where we left off. Or in other people's words: you're a paranoid, nihilist, isolationist swastika lover.

I only disagree with one point. While Schäuble's concern is a valid one from a power play point of view, it's also immoral. The same way we all find it immoral the way the Church of Scientology punishes leaving members, to set examples and limit the damage, and we just think: hey, let them go bro, don't be an ass. So, hey, we should let the UK go and hope we can still be friends, like civilized people. If that means other countries will leave, so what, that would be the will of the people of such countries, even if that means in the end you're stuck with Germany and Scotland in the EU. You may not like it, but it would be democratic.

[seebart]

So, hey, we should let the UK go and hope we can still be friends, like civilized people. If that means other countries will leave, so what, that's would be the will of the people of such countries, even if that means in the end you're stuck with Germany and Scotland in the EU.

There really is no other option is there, all the yapping from German politicians is just grumpy reaction really, which I am thoroughly enjoying.

Also many are scared shitless that other countries may follow...

[Wodan]

Oh glad you're not butthurt any more.

I can onl speak for myself but I wasn't talking about punishing the UK like Scientology (lol !!). UK wants out and the EU is a diabolic sect if they don't instantly offer a preferred treatment and all the benefits the UK needs?

Punishing the UK for leaving is a whole different game!

That's like breaking up with a girl and then complain that she's not going down on you any more. How immoral.

[fohat]

You may not like it, but it would be democratic.

Does the EU as an organization ever comprehensively study people's feelings to find out what they are unhappy about and what could be done to improve morale?

The US is basically bipolar and the 2 sides just scream at each other because they can't get their way, but the EU is far more heterogeneous and there might be some nuanced real improvements that everyone could agree on. And by "everyone" I am referring to the actual citizens and not their representatives.

[jacobolus]

The EU will likely “let the UK go and hope we can still be friends”, but in the best case that is still going to end up looking pretty bad for the UK vis-a-vis the EU. From a Brexiteer perspective, that probably looks just about the same as “the EU is trying to screw us”, at least when trying to explain to Brexit supporters why things didn’t turn out as advertised.

They’ll inevitably either (a) have to agree to all the same regulatory burden they didn’t like before, or (b) both sides will end up with a bunch of additional tariff and non-tariff trade barriers. There’s no way (the City of) London remains the financial center of Europe, and likewise many other kinds of businesses headquartered in London which do EU business will shift much or all of their operation to somewhere more convenient. The freedom of movement will either mostly remain as it is, or if the UK tries to block movement of people they’ll do still further damage to themselves by making visa situations a mess. EU funding for many things will dry up, not to be replaced by local funding. The US and other countries around the world will drag their feet on renegotiating special UK trade and other deals, because there’s a huge amount of uncertainty and it all might turn out to be a waste of time and they have other priorities. Overall, as expected, there will be a several percent hit to UK GDP.

The EU is in a tough spot. Even if they negotiate in good faith based on the interests of their member states, the breakup is going to be messy and probably acrimonious.

From the other side, the EU takes a big hit to its legitimacy, continues to grapple with immigration and a continent-wide wave of xenophobia and nativism, and still has an economy stagnating due to insufficient aggregate demand, youth unemployment, rising inequality, consumer debt, low birth rates, etc. The reduction in trade with the UK will be a hit to EU GDP, but an order of magnitude less painful than the hit the other way.

[webwit]

A mitigating point for the UK is that they already operated under the Pound sterling and all the consequential nationalist economic policies. Despite that the financial center of Europe is in London.

[Wodan]

A mitigating point for the UK is that they already operated under the Pound sterling and all the consequential nationalist economic policies. Despite that the financial center of Europe is in London.

In case you never heard of it:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36630606

London currently has full access to the EU financial market (+ even more countries)

The currency has little to no effect on the financial branch in the UK.

UK has used their exclusive access to the EU financial market strongly to their advantage. Every country has their holy cow and Britain's is The City. Having a customer in the financial industry, I've whitnessed first hand how the UK is very eager to attract more financial business. The main competition my customer gets is large international firma that open a branch in the UK where the license is cheap and the rules are friendly or eastern european companies that have an advantage due to their cheap labour cost.

Not saying it's an unfair game but there's no "despite" here. They have full access, they've worked hard to keep the regulation and rules in favour of The City.

[Muirium]

Yup. The City was firmly against Brexit and is currently losing its shit.

London as a whole was very almost as Remain as us foreigners up in Scotchland. Yet they've no choice but going down with the ship.

[Findecanor]

Over here in Sweden, political analysts are saying that the EU is at risk at getting more federalistic. Sweden needs the UK on its side against the more federalist forces in EU politics.

What does “federalistic” mean in this context?

In a very general sense, less national sovereignty/independence, more "United states of Europe".

The Swedish mentality is otherwise quite naive, being a follower rather than standing up for oneself on their own. Swedish EU-politicians (EU-parliamentarians and the government) needs someone to rally to - they won't do much of value themselves.

[jacobolus]

Okay, but the EU getting more “federalistic” would be a *good thing* for people in Europe, as the current EU structure is democratically unaccountable, economically broken, and entirely unable to solve political problems.

[Halvar]

Yes, that's exactly the crucial question about direction where opinions differ widely in the EU.

The absurdity of the Euro is that it was introduced without the member states even agreeing on this crucial strategic decision whether they want to go in the dirction of a federal state or not.

[BimboBB]

Thats correct. The EU needs become a United States of Europe, otherwise there is no way to solve the current problems like transfer union, social union, necessary reforms etc.. However this will need referendums everywhere....and you might have an idea how that will play out, if the current polictical structure of the EU keeps as it is now with an uncontrolled EU commision who is just surrounded by lobbiyst and who cant be voted away by elections.

[andrewjoy]

Getting away from constitutional matters that quite frankly are unimportant.

The collapse of the GBP continues

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... UR&view=1D

[Halvar]

Cameron's (and Johnson's) idea of taking a slow approach might be pretty clever politically, but I guess economy & finance are less amused about that. Seems like we might see general elections in the UK before the Article 20 process is even started ... And depending on how that goes, who knows if a new government even feels bound by the referendum..